WEATHER - Rain on and off through Saturday then tapering off on Sat afternoon for most of the area (except far eastern PA). Western PA & MD will clear a little earlier. This rain is expected to produce significant rainfall over a fairly large area. For the most part, this has been a steady, soaking rain, so much of it has soaked in to the previously dry ground rather than running off. A thunderstorm / downpour would have produced a higher percentage of runoff. In most areas we haven't seen as much runoff as you'd normally expect for the amount of rain but I think that the ground is starting to saturate and some of the wetlands have been recharged so that with the additional rain we'll start seeing more runoff. A picture is worth a thousand words so go to
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and click through the days, click on the map of each day to enlarge it. You can also go to
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/qpf/qpf_24hr_24.png and
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/qpf/qpf_48hr_48.png Expect seasonable high temps with highs in the low 60's.
RELEASES -
LEHIGH - Phila ACE has posted a release of 375 cfs for the weekend. Given the current inflow (not updated on their web page but certainly at least 800 cfs) and a forecast of over and inch of additional rain; I think that they will revise this upward. Even if they don't there is enough inflow from the tributaries to make the Lower Gorge a decent run.
GUNPOWDER- Balt Water Dept has been maintaining the flow at ~180 cfs, well above the minimum of 100 cfs. Check the level before you go as they may change it again; generally you are safe from changes after 4pm on Fridays.
NATURAL FLOW
LOWER YOUGH - Currently 2.23ft , 1200cfs with 900 coming from the dam. Expect slightly less (~2.1 / 1100cfs) for the weekend.
CHEAT (CANYON & NARROWS) - Will be cranking all weekend. Currently 4280 cfs at Parsons and rising. If you look at the "headwaters" gages Bemis, Bowden, and Job are still rising; Cheat Bridge has just crested this morning. You can get this information by going to this web page
http://www.afws.net/states/wv/wv.htm and then clicking on Randolph and Tucker counties. It is still raining there as I write this and modeerate amounts of additional rain are expected. I would expect the Canyon to crest on Friday but still be at a very beefy level on Saturday (4.5-5.5 ft - could be more depending on the rainfall). Sunday should bring levels of upper 3's to lower 4's. The Narrows is a much more hospitable run at higher water levels.
FORKS of the CHEAT - A lot of possibilities, especially on Saturday. I don't have a lot of experience forecasting them and then going out an paddling to see how good my forecast was, then refining the process. The lower sections of the DRY FORK and SHAVERS FORK will certainly be running.
TYGART - Plenty of water all weekend in the GORGE. (unfortunately the Middle Fork didn't get as much rain). The AUDRA section wil be at a pretty beefy level.
UPPER YOUGH - Currently runnable on natural flow 3.09ft / 508 cfs at Friendsville (no releases from Deep Creek until 11/21), The level at Oakland is just cresting, more rain (moderate amounts) is on the way. UY will be runnable all weekend probably in the 400-500 cfs range. A slight shift in the path of the storm could bring it up an extra 200 cfs.
TOP YOUGH - Also looks to be running all weekend.
LACKAWAXEN - Good to go on natural flow all weekend
LACKAWANNA - Also good to go on natural flow but may see some increased flow from the dam.
**** the following river forecasts assume that the predicted rain on Friday occurs as forecast ****
NESCOPECK - Would be minimally runnable w/o additional rain, with the extra inch of rain on Friday, should be at a prime level.
BLACK CREEK (LEHIGH trib) - Friday's rain should bring it up to runnable levels for a day / Sat (above Weatherly) and possibly a second day / Sunday (below Weatherly)
BEAR CREEK (Lehigh trib) - Friday's rain should bring it up all weekend.
LOYALSOCK - Friday's rain should bring it up all weekend, given that it already looks above minimum, should be at a decent level. Dress warmly on the 'sock, it is cold there except in July and August.
TOHICKON - Looks to be running at near release levels on Saturday (an opportunity to be the crowds of the following weekend) and above minimum but below release on Sunday
CODORUS - Good to go all weekend, a higher percentage flatwater than action but local for a lot of people.
MUDDY CREEK - Even more flatwater than Codorus (especially the paddle out across the lakd) but quite scenic, local for many.
LITTLE FALLS (Gunpowder trib) Looks to get the rain but it's flashy, Saturday only and even then don't plan on a late start.
STONEYCREEK River - Looks to get just enough of the storm to get above minimum for a day. If the storm shifts slightly west good levels all weekend.
GREAT TROUGH - Looks good for Saturday.
Anyone interested for Sat? Suggestions as to which creek / river?
